A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
