It was 60 days ago that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
